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MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for UFC Fight Night 239.
UFC Fight Night 239 (ESPN+) takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
Last event’s results: 4-1
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2024: 16-14-1
Welcome to MMA Junkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for UFC main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive, as my goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by FanDuel. If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, without further ado…
Gerald Meerschaert (-245) vs. Bryan Barberena (+194)
Kicking off the main card is a middleweight matchup between Gerald Meerschaert and Bryan Barberena.
Even though Barberena won titles on the regional scene at 185 pounds, I’m not sure why “Bam Bam” has chosen to campaign in this weight class at the UFC level.
Meerschaert may not be the most massive middleweight in the world, but “GM3” is an extremely experienced fighter who has seen just about everything in this game.
That said, Meerschaert does have a spotty record in the Apex at 3-3 and officially stands at 0-5 against fellow UFC-level southpaws (though I’d argue that he beat Eryk Anders).
Nevertheless, I still lean toward Meerschaert to get the job done via submission in round 2.
Pannie Kianzad (+186) vs. Macy Chiasson (-235)
Continuing the UFC matchmakers’ trend of rematches that nobody asked for, Pannie Kianzad will get a shot to even the score with Macy Chiasson.
These two met over a half-decade ago in the final of the 28th season of “The Ultimate Fighter,” which saw Chiasson pressure grapple her way to a rear-naked choke win in round 2. Both women have made improvements since, so I expect a closer fight this time around.
I’ll be curious to see what wrestling upgrades Kianzad was able to make after completing her camp at Xtreme Couture MMA in Las Vegas, but I suspect she’ll still have a lot of ground to cover, given that strong grapplers seem to be the Iranian-born fighter’s stylistic kryptonite.
I’m a big fan of Kianzad, but I’ll semi-reluctantly side with Chiasson since her clinch-heavy style will likely thrive in the smaller cage. The pick is Chiasson by unanimous decision.
Christian Rodriguez (+156) vs. Isaac Dulgarian (-194)
Serving as an interesting offering at featherweight is a bout between Christian Rodriguez and Isaac Dulgaraian.
Despite the oddsmakers opening Rodriguez as a slight favorite, public money has flipped the betting line in favor of Dulgarian.
Although that makes a Rodriguez pick even more tempting to take in this spot, I still find myself slightly leaning toward the undefeated talent in Dulgarian.
Rodriguez is an incredibly well-rounded prospect, but being tasked with a heavy-hipped wrestler up a weight class is a tough stylistic ask for the Roufusport product.
For that reason, I’ll officially pick Dulgarian to win by unanimous decision.
Kennedy Nzechukwu (-700) vs. Ovince Saint Preux (+475)
Filling out the main card is a light-heavyweight attraction between Kennedy Nzechukwu and Ovince Saint Preux.
Although this betting line is forcing this fight into ‘dog or pass’ territory from a gambling perspective, I can’t disagree with the Nzechukwu being the designated favorite.
Aside from boasting an impressive 4-1 record inside of the UFC Apex (in comparison to Saint Preux’s 1-3 record), Nzechukwu appears to be the more active and consistent fighter from an offensive standpoint.
It also appears that Saint Preux tends to struggle against fellow UFC-level lefties, where he currently stands at 2-2.
But with both men preferring to stand orthodox when pitted against other southpaws, we could be in for some awkward staring stanzas on the feet.
I’ll reluctantly pick Nzechukwu to get the nod from the judges due to his more reliable offense.
Bryan Battle (-178) vs. Ange Loosa (+144)
The co-main event for UFC Fight Night 239 features a welterweight showdown between Bryan Battle and Ange Loosa.
Although Loosa feels like he’s on the verge of a breakout performance, I suspect that Battle’s size and style could make for a tough ask for the African fighter.
Aside from showing a propensity to struggle with straight shots down the centerline, Loosa also appears to have a habit of resetting laterally to his left — which puts him right at the end of range for the power kicks of an orthodox opponent.
Considering that Battle already knocked out Loosa’s Kill Cliff FC teammate Takashi Sato with a head kick from that side, history could repeat itself this weekend if the native of the Congo isn’t careful.
Despite having the feeling that Battle is inevitably cruising for a bruising due to his heavy reliance on opportunism, I’ll pick him here to win via club-and-sub in round 2.
Tai Tuivasa (-114) vs. Marcin Tybura (-106)
The main attraction in Las Vegas features a heavyweight matchup between Tai Tuivasa and Marcin Tybura.
As stated in my in-depth breakdown, I suspect that the smaller octagon will slightly favor Tybura from a stylistic perspective since he is the superior on-paper grappler.
If Tuivasa — who is a lot more talented than given credit for — can’t find a finish early, he could be in some serious trouble if this fight gets into the second frame.
Tybura isn’t the most active wrestler in the world, but the Polish fighter has a knack for countering kicks and is quick to capitalize on mistakes when they materialize. “Tybur” is also one of the few fighters in this division who can competently take backs in scrambles, which makes the prospects of wrestling extra dangerous given Tuivasa’s grappling history.
I wouldn’t mind being wrong in this spot, but I’ll take Tybura to survive the early storm in order to lock up a submission in round 2.
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